Updated March 3, 2026 at 11:30 PM AKST
The outlines of the race for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas have come into clearer view, after James Talarico, a seminarian and state lawmaker, defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett for the Democratic nomination, according to a race call by the Associated Press.
"Tonight, the people of our state gave this country a little bit of hope," Talarico told supporters in Austin before the race was officially called. "And a little bit of hope is a dangerous thing."
For now, however, Talarico will have to wait to see who his opponent will be this November. That's because the Republican primary is now headed to a runoff between Sen. John Cornyn, the incumbent, and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Neither was able to cross the more than 50% threshold needed to win on Tuesday, setting the stage for a runoff on May 26.
With more than 80% of results in, Cornyn secured 42.1% of the vote, according to the AP. Paxton had 40.9% of the vote, while Congressman Wesley Hunt had 13.2%.
The Texas Senate race is one of the most closely watched contests on this year's election calendar, as Democrats sense an opportunity to claim their first statewide victory in Texas in more than three decades.
Both the GOP and Democratic primaries marked a potential litmus test for what direction base voters want their parties to go ahead of midterm elections this fall that will determine power in Congress.
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On the GOP side, much of the primary saw Paxton, Cornyn and Hunt each presenting themselves as the most pro-Trump candidate.
Speaking to supporters after qualifying for the runoff, Cornyn said President Trump's agenda now "hangs in the balance."
"I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton risk everything we have worked so hard to build over these many years," he said. "There is simply too much at stake in this midterm election for our state and for our country."
Cornyn is seeking a fifth term in the Senate. If he were to be elected this November and serve out a full six years, he would become the longest-serving senator in the state's history, breaking the record set by Democrat Morris Sheppard.
"Cornyn's biggest weakness is his strength, which is his longevity," said Joshua Blank, research director of the Texas Politics Project of the University of Texas at Austin. "He is a creature of the institution. He comes from central casting for what a senator should look like, but ultimately, the party has gone through a number of revisions over the last, at least, decade and a half that in some ways make Cornyn's approach to politics a little bit anachronistic."
Over the course of the campaign, both Paxton and Hunt argued they were more aligned with the MAGA movement and the current state of the Republican Party, which has continued a rightward shift under Trump. Cornyn, who has held the seat since 2002, has voted in favor of the president consistently while in office.
While Cornyn has held the advantages of both incumbency and a sizable campaign war chest, most polls over the past 11 months showed Paxton either leading Cornyn or statistically tied with him.
Paxton, who at one point was the target of impeachment proceedings and was acquitted, told a crowd of his supporters that the Texas contest is going to remain one of the most closely-watched races in the country. He accused Cornyn of collaborating too closely with Democrats while in office, including on gun control legislation.
"For too long he sold us out to Democrats," he said. "Those days are coming to an end."
Bill Miller, a political consultant who has advised both Republicans and Democrats, said that Paxton is the best positioned to win a second-round contest.
"The runoff will be the hardcore primary voters, and that's his base," Miller said, "so he'll be extraordinarily difficult to defeat in a runoff."
The Democratic primary
In Talarico, 36, Texas Democrats have chosen to nominate an eighth-generation Texan and a former San Antonio middle school teacher who recently earned his Mastery of Divinity degree from the Austin Presbyterian Theological Seminary.
Talarico first won election to the Texas House in 2018, flipping a district then-President Donald Trump had won two years earlier. During the first 2025 legislative special session, he emerged as one of the leaders of a Democratic walkout to protest the Republican-led congressional redistricting. He declared his Senate candidacy soon after the second special session ended in September.
Crockett announced her Senate bid after Republicans in Texas redrew the state's congressional lines at Trump's urging last year. She was among a handful of Democrats who were essentially drawn out of their districts, which had previously favored Democrats.
There was a close eye on Crockett's next move because she had garnered significant attention during her time in Congress as a lawmaker willing to verbally spar with her Republican colleagues.
Her decision to run shook up a primary race that Talarico was already in.
At first the race between the two was cordial, but as Election Day got closer – and more money and attention poured in – the contest between the two Democrats soured. That is even though the two candidates agree on most issues and policies.
Where they split is over whose strategy is best equipped to turn Texas blue. Talarico, who often invokes his faith, sought to frame his campaign as one that can win over moderates, disenchanted Republicans and other voters the Democratic Party doesn't often speak to. For her part, Crockett bet she could win by turbocharging turnout among Democrats.
Results in the Democratic primary were slowed on Tuesday following confusion among voters in Dallas County, Crockett's home county. Hundreds of voters were reportedly turned away from the polls because they showed up to the wrong polling site. Dallas GOP officials decided to require voters cast their ballot at their precinct, as opposed to the countywide polling sites — which voters usually use during early voting. In response, a county judge ordered that the polls close two hours later, delaying results for an already tight race.
The Texas primary has become the most expensive Senate primary contest in state history. As of mid-February, the tracking organization AdImpact Politics reported that spending in the Republican and Democratic races combined had reached close to $99 million, second in U.S. history only to the 2022 Arizona Senate primary. Cornyn ads alone accounted for nearly $59 million of that total.
Spending has only increased since then, with attack ads by both the candidates and super PACs supporting them proliferating.
The election could provide a glimpse as to whether Republicans are holding on to the gains they made with Latino voters, who are increasingly influential in Texas, during the 2024 election. Polling has shown that Latinos in the state, as well as nationwide, are beginning to back away from the Republican Party due to concerns over the economy and immigration enforcement.
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