In the final primary count, Republican Congressman Nick Begich had a commanding lead with more than 44 percent of the vote. He finished 12 percentage points ahead of his closest challenger, Bill Hill, an independent, who received 33 percent.
Also on the ballot: Eric Hafner, a Democrat and a felon serving time in a New York prison, and Jim McDermott, a Libertarian from Fairbanks. Both moved into the top four finalists after other candidates dropped out — but together have only five percent of the vote.
While longtime political observers say it’s Nick Begich’s race to lose, Hill still sees a path to victory. His strategy is to attract moderate Republicans in the general election and win over Democrats who previously backed Matthew Schultz. Although Schultz dropped out of the primary and encouraged his supporters to vote for Hill, he still took eight percent of the vote. Hill hopes to win over those voters in the general, which could significantly narrow the gap with Begich.
The day after primary election results were finalized, the Alaska Democratic Party endorsed Hill, along with Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tompkins for governor.
“Alaska Democrats are known for putting forward candidates who think like Alaska, move like Alaska and talk like Alaska,” said Eric Croft, chairman of the Alaska Democratic Party in a statement.
“We bridge partisan lines, bring people into our movement, and win some of the toughest districts,” Croft said.
So far it looks like Hill’s plan to draw Democrats into his camp seems to be working.
Many of them packed a midtown brewery and put on Bill Hill buttons at a fundraiser just after the primary. Hill says he is also encouraged by Democrat Mary Peltola’s performance in the primary in her bid for the U.S. Senate. She won almost 50 percent of the vote, with an eight percent lead over the incumbent, Sen. Dan Sullivan.
“I would hope that everyone that comes out and votes for her campaign would also come out and vote for my campaign,” Hill said.
He says he and Mary Peltola have a lot in common. Both are Alaska Native and advocate for many of the same issues. He says his opponent represents billionaires and special interests, while he and Peltola are focused on fighting corruption and reining in costs for average Alaskans
“I definitely think we energize the same pool of voters,” Hill said. “We both come from rural backgrounds. We both are heavily invested with fish as a core part of our identity. We’re heavily invested in family as a core part of our identity.”
Hill, like Peltola, is from rural Alaska. He grew up in Bristol Bay, became a school superintendent and during the summer worked as a commercial fisherman. He and his wife, Diane, also own a company that makes brailer bags — large mesh sacks that attach to a crane, to move large catches of fish from one boat to another.
Jim Lottsfeldt, a political consultant who volunteered for Schultz, says Hill faces an uphill battle. In a year he says is marked by Trump fatigue among some voters, Hill's odds would be better if he were running as a Democrat.
“I don’t really put a lot into the coat tails argument, which is, 'I know Mary, I like Mary, and now I’m going to vote for every Native,'” Lottsfeldt said. “I don’t think we work that way.”
Lottsfeldt says Begich’s numbers look even stronger when compared to Sen. Dan Sullivan’s.
“Nick Begich far outperformed Dan Sullivan,” he said. “You’d think Dan Sullivan would be a bit of a baseline. He’s more well known. This is the third time he’s been on the ballot.”
Art Hackney, a political consultant who often works with conservative candidates, says Begich is battle-tested compared to Hill, who has never run for statewide office.
“Nick has proven to be literally a statesman-like campaigner,” Hackney said. “He’s done brilliantly.”
He says another advantage for Begich is that he unseated Mary Peltola in her bid for reelection in 2024 – and since then has risen within Republican ranks as a trusted voice on energy issues.
“He’s matured wonderfully,” Hackney said. “He’s everybody’s dream for what a candidate would be.”
Hackney says GOP leaders have included him in major press conferences.
“For a freshman to be included like they have included him with the leadership of the party is pretty, pretty remarkable,” said Hackney, who noted that Speaker Mike Johnson campaigned for Begich on a recent visit to Alaska.
Hackney concedes that Hill has done well for a political newcomer.
“He’s had a very focused campaign and is comfortable in his own skin,” said Hackney. With Republicans and Democrats locked in a fierce battle for control of Congress, he says Hill’s campaign should be taken seriously, because the race will attract significant outside spending.
Hill believes his main challenge is name recognition.
“We started this in January, mid-January, with no name recognition,” Hill said. “Right now, we’re sitting at about 40 percent name recognition. If we can grow that, I think we can get a lot more votes in this state.”
Lottsfeldt says that’ll be tough running against the Begich name.
“I mean the Begiches are sort of the Kennedys of Alaska,” he said.
Lottsfeldt said rural communities remember Begich’s grandfather, Congressman Nick Begich Sr., fondly, as well as his uncle Mark Begich, who served one term as a U.S. Senator and his other uncle, Tom Begich, a former state lawmaker who ran for governor in the primary.
Bill Hill is betting voters will care more about issues like affordability and government accountability rather than political pedigree. But with less than two months until election day, time may be his toughest opponent.
